Sunday, March 1, 2015

2015 Semper Ubi Sub Ubi Team Preview

Evan Longoria (TB - 3B)
Summary:   Semper Ubi Sub Ubi (SUSU) was a surprise contender last season as it suffered some down season from players that are capable of better numbers.  The team lacks power potential and features a fairly large gap in pitching.  If those problems are addressed, look for SUSU to continue its contending ways.

Offense:  SUSU's offense is led by the diminutive though productive 2B Jose Altuve.  Altuve was on the market during the last preseason but SUSU decided against trading him and that decision turned out to be a good one as Altuve managed 56 SB and .341 batting average and ranked as the 5th best player in the game in 2014.  After Altuve, things get a little more lackluster with the surprising OF JD Martinez and 3B Evan Longoria, who is consistent but hasn't up put star numbers.  Speedster outfielders Billy Hamilton and Bret Gardner represents some of the best speed potential in the game while super-utility man 2B/SS/OF Ben Zobrist remains a valuable asset despite finding himself on a new team this season.  Disappointments OF Jay Bruce as well as SS Jean Segura will need to rebound to 2013 numbers for SUSU to continue to be a contender and WS Champ Brandon Belt will need to get better in order to remain rosterable.  Youngsters C Mike Zunino, OF Domonic Brown and OF Jorge Soler remain impressively talented and will be counted to tap into that talent at some point this season.  Prospects OF Clint Frazier and OF Raimel Tapia had nice minor league seasons and are must holds moving forward.  SUSU will need more than most to go right in order to remain productive as it will be hard to count on a guy like Martinez while the the likes of Bruce and Segura squander. Speed is not an issue for this team though power may be as no player registered more than Longoria 91 RBIs last season.  Potentially finding some power potential and getting some insurance at 3B and potentially hedging its bets at catcher with someone like Christian Betancourt (Atl - C), JT Realmuto (Mia - C) or Kevin Plawecki (NYM - C) might be smart here.

Pitching:  Going into the season, no pitcher is hotter than ace and WS MVP Madison Bumgarner but after the lefty SUSU's next best starter was Danny Duffy last season.  The team's most likely next best pitcher is flamethrower Andrew Cashner but his injury history hampers that projection.  Starters Michael Wacha and Chris Archer would likely be the next arms in line though Wacha experienced a decent sophomore slump while Archer did improve his K/9 ratio.  Speaking of K/9 ratio, teammate Jake Odorizzi and his 9.3 K's per game cemented him as a keeper though youngsters Rubby De La Rosa and UK alum James Paxton will need to step it up in the new season.  SUSU possesses some of the best relievers in the game with closers Mark Melancon, Addison Reed and Kenley Jansen, who is now out 8 to 12 weeks as he recovers from foot surgery.  Prospect Tyler Glasnow is close to being big league ready and the lack of legit starters makes Rule-5 selection Kohl Stewart a likely must keep.  As previously mentioned, after Bumgarner the rest of SUSU's starters fail in comparison which doesn't bode well.  Finding high-caliber arms on contending teams or those on the cusp of production will be key to SUSU's future success or failure.

Draft:  SUSU often demonstrates the strategy of drafting the best player available (BPA) and tends to learn towards players that are close rather than those it might wait on to be big league ready.  With that being said, this team will likely still have to choose between addressed it apparent lack of power and its lack of pitching.  Look for SUSU to address the rare power player in that scenario and try its best to fill its pitching holes later through other avenues.

Prediction:
RD 1:  Steven Souza (TB - OF) - New starter is an intriguing power/speed combo at 6'4/225
RD 2:  Brett Cecil (Tor - RP) - Currently the potential Toronto closer
RD 3:  AJ Cole (Was - SP) - Proved to be ready for MLB, all he needs is an opportunity
RD 4:  Braxton Davidson (Atl - OF) - 2014 1st RD pick has highly projectable frame and bat
RD 5:  Kohl Stewart (Min - SP) - R5 Keeper
RD 6:  Raimel Tapia (Col - OF) - Keeper

Prospect Draft:
RD 1:  Renato Nunez (Oak - 3B) - Hit 29 HRs last season, arguably best 3B prospect available
RD 2:  Amed Rosario (NYM - SS) - Mets just waiting on him to progress before calling him up
RD 3:  Monte Harrison (Mil - OF) - 2014 draftee with true 5-tool ability as he matures

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